stallion

Epsom Pace Bias Statistics

The graphs below indicate what percentage of horses with a particular running style won over each particular distance.

The three different styles are horses that led, horses which were mid pack, and horses held up at the back.

The Pace Indicator (PI) is a quick representation of the analysis, and indicates the style of running which is most favourable over each particular distance. A PI of 2 would indicate that all winners led. A PI score of 0 would mean that all winners were held up. Obviously the actual figure is always somewhere in between depending on the pace bias which exists.


ANALYSIS PI
5 Furlongs
1.34
6 Furlongs
1.41
7 Furlongs
1.49
1 Mile
1.30
1 Mile 2 Furlongs
1.20
1 Mile 4 Furlongs
1.08

There is a straight 5 furlongs at Epsom, which is downhill all the way, and is just about the fastest 5 furlong course in the world. It is very hard to make all over this 5 furlong course, which is similar to the 5 furlongs at Goodwood.

Over the other distances they race round a bend, and also have advantageous strips of ground to be on, therefore being at the front gives the jockey the advantage of where on the course to race. This probably explains why front runners are favoured over these other distances.

In terms of the individual distances, shown below is how Epsom ranks :


5 Furlongs 22nd out of 31 courses
6 Furlongs 8th out of 29 courses
7 Furlongs 3rd out of 24 courses
8 Furlongs 15th out of 30 courses