first time out trainers

2 year old horses fitness first time out

It is an often repeated phrase the horse will come on for the run, or so and so trainer never has his 2 year olds fully wound up for their debut. But how true is it? And which trainers horses improve the most from their first run to their second.

This is what the table below seeks to answer. There is a full explanation below, but the key column is the second one which tells you how much on average trainers two year old horses improve from their first run to their second.

First time out 2yos by trainer

Name Ibs improvement on 2nd run % of 2yos who improve 2nd time out
Charlie Appleby 3.3 61%
Andrew Balding 12.6 80%
David Barron 3.5 57%
Ralph Beckett 8.4 75%
Michael Bell 6.1 64%
Saeed Bin Suroor 7.6 80%
Marco Botti 4.8 50%
Henry Cecil 12.6 76%
Mick Channon 6.7 68%
Peter Chapple-Hyam 7.8 68%
Roger Charlton 5 53%
Clive Cox 1.5 56%
Luca Cumani 7.6 68%
Tom Dascombe 10 69%
Ed Dunlop 6.6 72%
Tim Easterby 8.1 62%
David Evans 6.2 62%
Richard Fahey 4 60%
John Gosden 14.1 80%
Willie Haggas 10.1 72%
Richard Hannon 6.4 62%
Charlie Hills 4.8 62%
John Jenkins 8.8 59%
Mark Johnston 9.2 68%
Brian Meehan 6.5 56%
Hughie Morrison 7.1 62%
Jeremy Noseda 9.1 79%
Dandy Nicholls 15.8 70%
Aidan O'Brien 9.4 73%
Jamie Osbourne 18.1 90%
Kevin Ryan 4 59%
David Simcock 7.7 67%
Michael Stoute 9.6 67%
Bill Turner 5.2 62%
Roger Varien 9.4 73%

The table above analyses the improvement made between a 2yos debut run and its second run by looking at the difference between the RPR (Racing Post Rating) it was given for each.

The first column looks at the average improvement in RPR from debut to second run for each trainer, and the second column shows what percentage of that trainers 2yos improved from their first run to their second. So you can see that John Gosden's horses improve by 14lbs for their debut run and therefore probably aren't fully wound up for their debut. Whilst Clive Cox obviously doesn't leave a lot to work with, and has his 2yos as fit as he can get them first time out as they only improve on average by a 1lb for their debut run.