Chester Pace Bias Statistics

The graphs below indicate what percentage of horses with a particular running style won, over each particular distance.

The three different styles are horses that led, horses which were mid pack, and horses held up at the back.

The Pace Indicator (PI) is a quick representation of the analysis, and indicates the style of running which is most favourable over each particular distance. A PI of 2 would indicate that all winners led. A PI score of 0 would mean that all winners were held up. Obviously the actual figure is always somewhere in between depending on the pace bias which exists.

5 Furlongs 16 yards
6 Furlongs 18 yards
7 Furlongs 2 yards
7 Furlongs 122 yards
1 Mile 2 Furlongs 75 yards
1 Mile 3 Furlongs 79 yards
1 Mile 4 Furlongs 66 yards
2 Mile 2 Furlongs 117 yards

Chester is a very unique course. The tightest course in the country where horses are virtually on the turn all of the way. It also has a very short run-in. Therefore it is not surprising that front runners are massively favoured, even over the longest distance of 2 miles and 2 furlongs it is very hard to come from behind and win.

In terms of the individual distances, if we look at were Chester ranks against other turf courses which have races over equivalent distances. Chester is ranked very near the top for Front Runners for every distance

5 Furlongs - 3rd out of 31 courses
6 Furlongs - 4th out of 29 courses
7 Furlongs - 1st out of 23 courses
8 Furlongs - 4th out of 25 courses

In terms of in-running betting Chester had 9 In-Play losers at 1.01 from 481 cases (ranked 8th of 39 UK Flat): 37 In-Play losers at 1.10 or less from 528 cases (ranked 16th of 39 UK Flat):