Southwell Bias Statistics

The graphs below indicate what percentage of horses with a particular running style won, over each particular distance.

The three different styles are horses that led, horses which were mid pack, and horses held up at the back.

The Pace Indicator (PI) is a quick representation of the analysis, and indicates the style of running which is most favourable over each particular distance. A PI of 2 would indicate that all winners led. A PI score of 0 would mean that all winners were held up. Obviously the actual figure is always somewhere in between depending on the pace bias which exists.

Distance Analysis PI
5 Furlongs 1.49
6 Furlongs 1.44
7 Furlongs 1.38
1 Mile 1.24
1 Mile 3 Furlongs 1.2
1 Mile 6 Furlongs 1.09

Southwell has long had the reputation for being a course where it is very difficult to come from behind, due to the difficulty in accelerating on the surface and the tremendous kick back which hold up horses have to come through. The analysis tends to back this up, with generally Chelmsford being the only AW course which is more favourable to front runners.

The only exception is over 5 furlongs. I think the reason for this is that Southwell is the only straight 5 furlongs amongst the all weather courses, and the analysis generally shows it is much harder to make all over a straight course than when racing round a bend.

In terms of the individual distances, how Southwell ranks is shown below:

5 Furlongs 3rd out of 5 courses
6 Furlongs - 2nd out of 5 courses
7 Furlongs 1st out of 4 courses
8 Furlongs 2nd out of 5 courses