What the pattern suggests
Because of the layout of the 5 Furlongs at Carlisle it is often stated that low numbers are favoured, however although the stats back this up to an extent, the bias is only small.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older.
Stall-numbering note: From 30 March 2011, stall numbering on right-handed courses changed so that stall 1 is always on the inside. Earlier results in the source chart have been plotted using the modern convention for consistency.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 1111 | 111 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
|||||||||||||
| 10 | 111 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | 111 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 12 | |
1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | |
1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1 |
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| 18 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
|
5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: consider where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can obtain a favourable position.
- Going: assess whether one side of the course is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects can become more important when runners are spread across a larger field.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can change the effective bias.
Conclusion
Because of the layout of the 5 Furlongs at Carlisle it is often stated that low numbers are favoured, however although the stats back this up to an extent, the bias is only small.