What the pattern suggests
All races up to a mile at Chepstow are run on a straight course with high numbers being on the near side. There appears to be a slight bias favouring high drawn runners, and it does seem to be an advantage to be drawn highest of all next to the stands side rail. Having said that the advantage is quite slim.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This shows whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side of the field.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 111 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | x | 1 11 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
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| 10 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 1111 | 1 | 11 | 11 | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 11 | 111 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
|
3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a favourable position.
- Going: consider whether one side of the straight is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects can become more meaningful when runners are spread across a larger field.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
All races up to a mile at Chepstow are run on a straight course with high numbers being on the near side. There appears to be a slight bias favouring high drawn runners, and it does seem to be an advantage to be drawn highest of all next to the stands side rail. Having said that the advantage is quite slim.