Best place to be drawnLow / slight edge
Race type3yo+ races
SampleHistorical results
Key influenceGoing
What the pattern suggests
There appears to be a slight bias favouring high drawn runners when the going is good or better over a mile at Chepstow, particularly those drawn extremely high. In softer conditions low drawn horses actually seem to be favoured.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This shows whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side of the field.
Good or fasterGood to soft or softer
The source chart covers horses aged three and older.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 111 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
1 | 111 |
H'caps Only 2004 - 2025 |
||||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 111 | |||||||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 111 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1111 | 11 | 11 | |||||||||||||
| 15 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a favourable position.
- Going: consider whether one side of the straight is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects can become more meaningful when runners are spread across a larger field.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
There appears to be a slight bias favouring high drawn runners when the going is good or better over a mile at Chepstow, particularly those drawn extremely high. In softer conditions low drawn horses actually seem to be favoured.
Related Chepstow analysis
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