What the pattern suggests
When the ground is good or better there seems to be just a small bias favouring low-drawn runners. When it gets soft, there doesn't appear to be any draw bias.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: From 30 March 2011, stall numbering on right-handed courses changed so that stall 1 is always on the inside. Earlier Musselburgh results in the chart have been converted to the modern numbering convention.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 11 | 11 | 111 | 1111 | 11 | 11 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
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| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 1 | 1 | 1111 | ||||||||||||
| 11 | 111 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 12 | 111 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | |
||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
11 | ||||||||||||||
| 15 | |
1 |
1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | |
1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |
1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
|
3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
When the ground is good or better their seems to be just a small bias favouring low drawn runners, when it gets soft there doesn't appear to be any draw bias.