What the pattern suggests
This is a massive bias. On good or better ground, unless you're drawn in the top half — the stands side — you can more or less forget it. When the ground is soft, the bias doesn't seem to exist, likely because the far-side rail is thought to be faster in soft ground.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: Stalls at Thirsk are always positioned on the inside of the track.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1111 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | x | 1 11 | 1111 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
||||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 111 | |||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 111 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
|
1 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 20 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
Wow!! What a massive bias. In good or better ground unless you are drawn on the top half, which is the stands side, then forget it. When the ground is soft the bias doesn't seem to exist, and it is thought that the far side rail is faster in soft ground which would explain this.