What the pattern suggests
There appears to be a small bias favouring high numbers here, but the bias at Windsor is by no means large. However when the ground is soft there is a golden highway up the far rail which means being drawn high is a big advantage.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
||||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 111 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||
| 12 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 111 | |||||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 14 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 1 | 111 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1111 | |||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
|
3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: consider where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can obtain a favourable position.
- Going: assess whether one side of the course is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects can become more important when runners are spread across a larger field.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can change the effective bias.
Conclusion
There appears to be a small bias favouring high numbers here, but the bias at Windsor is by no means large. However when the ground is soft there is a golden highway up the far rail which means being drawn high is a big advantage.