NBA betting tool

NBA Elo Model

A free interactive tool: pick two NBA teams and see model win probabilities and fair odds, built from team Elo ratings with home-court advantage and season-to-season weighting.

NBA Elo Model

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HOW TO USE THIS TOOL

Type two NBA team names into the boxes below (start typing and pick from the suggestions), choose which one is the home team, and press Calculate true odds.

You'll get each team's estimated chance of winning, the "fair" decimal odds and moneyline that chance implies, and their past head-to-head results.

If you've got odds from a sportsbook for the same game, pop them into the two boxes at the bottom of the results to see whether the price looks generous or stingy compared to this model.

The leaderboard further down shows current Elo ratings for all 30 teams, based on results through .

MATCHUP PREDICTOR

TEAM A IS HOME
TEAM B IS HOME
Model win prob.Fair decimal oddsFair moneyline

NBA ELO LEADERBOARD