What the pattern suggests
This is a rather surprising result — no bias was expected here, but it appears that being drawn low is a slight disadvantage, particularly in big fields. It's also thought that being drawn in stall 1 over seven furlongs and a mile is a significant disadvantage, and the stats do tend to bear this out.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: Stalls at Southwell's all-weather course are always positioned on the inside of the track.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11 | 111 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 13 | 11 | 111 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | ||||||||||
How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
A rather surprising result here. I was expecting their to be no bias however it appears that being drawn low is a slight disadvantage, particularly in big fields. Also it is thought that being drawn in stall 1 over 7 furlongs and a mile is a big disadvantage, and the stats do tend to bear this out.